The Bank of Japan's short-term survey may show that business confidence has hardly changed. It is reported that the short-term survey released by the Bank of Japan on Friday may show that the mood of large manufacturers has remained almost unchanged in the last quarter under the influence of complex signals such as the recovery of the automobile industry and concerns about the global economic slowdown. Economists surveyed by data provider Quick predict that the prosperity judgment index of large-scale manufacturing industry will be +12, compared with +13 in the last survey. The survey is closely watched for clues about the decision of the Bank of Japan at its meeting next week. If it shows strong capital expenditure plan, high inflation expectation and tight employment situation, it may support the idea of raising interest rates early.If Trump wants to curb inflation, the first thing to do is to build more houses. If Trump wants to push down inflation in the United States to a more tolerable level, he needs housing costs to help him. In this regard, the influence of the Federal Reserve is limited. It is unclear whether inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target in a sustained and convincing manner, at least not until housing inflation is further eased. In October, the national average rent in the United States was $209 per month, slightly lower than that in September, but still higher than the same period last year by 3.3%. Lisa Studt Vanter, chief economist of Bright MLS, said, "It is expected that with the passage of time, we will start to see the year-on-year rent growth slow down, but it just feels like it will take a long time. Some measures proposed by Trump will lead to rising inflation. Compared with six months ago, the prospect of continuing to move towards 2% is less certain. Aiming at the housing supply problem is something that the federal government can do meaningfully. Of course, this is not something that can be done in the short term. "After the emergency martial law storm, South Korea's financial industry suffered successively. After the emergency martial law storm in South Korea, South Korea's financial industry suffered successively, and the stock market fluctuated obviously. This week, it began to rebound slightly. South Korean media pointed out that the uncertainty of South Korea's political situation may put its international reputation under downward pressure. South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning and Finance, Choe Sang-mu, held an "emergency macroeconomic and financial symposium" on the 10th to discuss the dynamics of the financial and foreign exchange markets and the countermeasures. According to South Korea's Chosun Ilbo reported on the 9th, after the emergency martial law storm, the total market value of South Korea's stock market evaporated by 58 trillion won within three days, and more than 400 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves were also threatened. As the political struggle of "impeaching the president" continues, not only finance, but also retail, alcohol, real estate, semiconductor export and other aspects of the Korean economy have also felt the chill. South Korean media believe that if financial instability and the stagnation of the real economy, the economy may fall into crisis sharply. According to the "Foreign Securities Investment Trends in November" released by the Korea Financial Supervisory Authority on the 10th, foreign investors sold 4.154 trillion won in the Korean securities market last month and sold Korean shares for four consecutive months. South Korea's "Asia Daily" said on the 10th that as South Korea re-entered the presidential impeachment time, the uncertainty intensified, and it is expected that the net selling behavior of foreign investors will continue. Although South Korea's stock market rebounded on the 10th, the uncertainty of the political situation put its international reputation under downward pressure. South Korea's Chosun Ilbo published a commentary on the 10th, saying that Fitch and Moody's, among the world's three major credit rating agencies, have successively warned that if the storm after martial law is prolonged, South Korea's national credit rating may be negatively affected. (CCTV)
Reuters survey: In December, the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged or cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year. All 71 economists surveyed during December 6-11 predicted that the Bank of England would keep its target interest rate unchanged at 4.75% at its meeting on December 19. Among the economists who predict the interest rate outlook until the end of 2025, about 54% (36 out of 67) expect to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of next year, another 17 expect to cut interest rates by at least 125 basis points, and 14 expect to cut interest rates by at most 75 basis points.Informed sources: The main reason for the extreme flash crash is Baidu's divestment. Many people familiar with the extreme flash crash believe that the main reason is Baidu's divestment. Baidu insiders told that in October 2024, the company sent a financial team to make preparations for the follow-up investment of 3 billion yuan: "As a result, it was found that there were as many as 7 billion financial holes and it was decided not to continue investing." (Caixin)The downtime lasted more than 4 hours, and the failure of ChatGPT and Sora services has been fully repaired. On the afternoon of December 12, Beijing time, OpenAI updated the accident report and said that API, ChatGPT and Sora services have now fully resumed operation. Earlier today, OpenAI confirmed that ChatGPT, its chat robot, experienced a worldwide downtime, and Sora and API were also affected. It is understood that the fault lasted about 4 hours and 10 minutes. OpenAI said that it will conduct a comprehensive root cause analysis of this failure.
Flying Pig: In 2024, the number of holiday businesses whose GMV exceeded 100 million yuan was three times that of last year. On December 12, Flying Pig said at the 2024 holiday business conference that under the positioning of the open platform, the business efficiency and business satisfaction of businesses continued to improve. In 2024, the number of travel agencies, amusement parks, cruise ships and other holiday businesses on the Flying Pig platform maintained double-digit growth year-on-year. The number of businesses with GMV exceeding 100 million yuan was three times that of last year, and the average order volume of gold medal merchants reached more than twice the market level, with a conversion rate about 20% higher.Huachuang Securities: It was first rated as "recommended" by Zangge Mining, with a target price of 33.3 yuan. Huachuang Securities Research Report pointed out that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) is an important producer of potassium lithium salt and copper in China, with a high dividend return to shareholders. The company actively arranges high-quality potash resources at home and abroad: three major projects, namely, Heibei potash mine in Dalangtan, Alkali-Shishan potash mine and the eastern part of deep brine potash mine in Xiaoliangshan-Dafengshan area, are steadily promoted in China, with a total exploration right of 1,400 square kilometers; Overseas has signed a potash exploration agreement with Laos. At present, the exploration report and potash mine reserve certificate have been obtained. It is estimated that the total amount of potassium chloride resources in Setani County and Ba 'e County is 984 million tons. It is estimated that the output of the first phase of potassium chloride project will be 1 million tons/year, and the scale of potassium chloride production is expected to double in the future. The company is an important manufacturer of potassium and lithium in China, and Julong Copper is expected to inject strong kinetic energy into the company's growth. Considering that Mamicho Mining has not been consolidated at present, it is estimated that the company will realize a net profit of 25.0/27.7/4.29 billion yuan in 24-26 years, which is -27%, +11% and +54.9% respectively. In 2025, it can be compared with the company's average valuation of 19 times, giving the company a valuation of 19 times in 2025, corresponding to the target price of 33.3 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "recommended" rating.India imported 841,993 tons of palm oil in November, compared with 845,682 tons in October.
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14